Tuesday, August 13, 2013

AIPAC Symposium- Policy Analyst Aaron David Miller

aaron david miller
vp for new initiatives , Distinguished Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
the way the world is and the way the world you want it to be.
what is the balance
 1. Middle East is a region of risk, liability and vulnerability
2.  We cannot change the region and we cannot extricate ourselves from it.
3. hard to succeed and hard to leave it.
4. How do you measure success?
5. We have less street credibility than ever before.
6.  the key to life is success! it breeds friends and power. People who succeed generate followers. us has not succeeded

point 2.
1. we are learning about the limitations of american military power
2. we have not been attacked on the homeland since 9/11
We are safer but not safe
We are weaning ourselves away from a dependence on arab hydrocarbons
Canada and Mexico is good.
a. energy security is still an issue
b. other nations still need arab oil

3. This region has more complexity and moving parts
a. Iran search for nuclear weapons, palestine issue and israel are based upon domestic issues
b. long term issues . there are 
c. it is hard to deal comprehensively with these issues.
4.  partisanship of american politics is not relevant. it is about being smart or dumb. Polarization between states and ideologies is bad.
1. Israeli -Palestinian Peace
a. kerry peace process view point. a conflict ending agreement to settle the basic issues is unimaginable. Then what is possible?
Are leaders prisoners of political constituences
boarders and 
jerusalem and refugees
recognition of Jewish state
You care only what you own. Nobody every owned a rental car 'Larry Summers
Arab Spring-depressing but inevitable.
3 limits for democratic life do not exist
leaders cannot rise above their sectarian basis.
institutions that are inclusive
 institutional mechanism to debate volitile issues without destroying the system.
Iran- who can stop Iran? Iran. the costs might prove prohibitive.  but no evidence to suggest it.  it is about the capacity to produce the weapon. 
Our best hope is to keep Iran from becoming a breakout nation as a nuclear weapon state. Iran is driven by profound insecurity and grandiosity. dangerous
idealism without illusion. never give up. eyes wide open.
the Palestinian problem is called the Noah's ark syndrome
they have two of everything. how do you make peace?
security and identity issu

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