Journalist Yossi Klein HaLevi: How the Yom Kippur War Changed Israel

The Israel we know today was formed by the Israel after 1973.
Israel has struggled with the consequences of that war ever since.
In retrospect the YK war was maybe its most impressive victory given its ability to recover from the surprise attack.
Yet Israelis say today that Egypt won the war. How is that possible.
And in that question is the origin of the left -right schism to this very day.
Israelis see two events that define the state of mind that makes them wary, to not let their guard down
a. Holocaust
b. YK war.
c. Both the settlement and the peace movements both began after the YK war.
d. the sin is Israeli arrogance from YK war.

Two narratives to read Israeli history
a. Left politics:  Sadat was left with no alternative but to attack. His trip to Jerusalem was the beginning of Israeli atonement and that is why peace happened.
b. Right politics:  Sadat- nonsense that he wanted to make peace before 73. he needed a victory to have the credibility to make peace. His waiting for Labor to fall and Likud to prominence was a vindication of the right wing and Begin.
c. Zionism as Racism UN resolution reinforced that we live in a hostile world.
d. Intifadas-  when Israel offers the peace is when the Palestinians go violence. That is the true Palestinian view.
e. the sin is Israeli complacency from YK war

40 years later after the YK war. What has Israel learned?
a. a bit of right and the left. It is a blend of both characteristics.
b. We need to be more careful recognizing a false sense of security and being more open to risking to Havi is saying thatpeace. It is a balance.
c. Most Israelis would be happy if the current negotiations would produce something of a peace agreement. But few Israelis believe that there is a serious partner for peace.
d. Israelis have learned the lessons of YK war and whatever they think went wrong.

a. He says that Jews of the left should atone for minimizing the threats that Israel experiences daily. They should atone for minimizing the dangers and political pressures  upon Israel.
b. Right wing Jews in America should atone for the sins of the occupation and not paying attention to what has happened to Israel over the last few years.
c. This YK left and right wing Jews should atone for not being willing to listen to each other.
d. In Israel both sides have each won and lost the big arguments to some extent. Neither camp has the entire the truth.
e. The fortieth anniversary of the war could contribute to a further sense of unity and healing consistent for the high holy days and for Jewish unity.

questions of speaker and his comments:
The Likud leaders are the more dynamic in the Israeli political movement in Israel today.
He does not see that old arrogance and bravado that was Israel after 67-73. Israel has changed and learned how to live as a normal country yet still knowing that it is not living in a normal world.
 Israel is more democratic now than ever before.
He talked about the freedom of the press. There is not

the blind trust in the govt that there was.
This might have contributed to Israel being caught off guard at YK 73. A free press is critical for Israel.
We may be in a holding action right now. Maybe the current negotiations could lead to an interim agreement. That is about it.
This is the year of Iran. Will Iran be stopped or will it be allowed to go nuclear?
Israel is taking it one day at a time.
See Jabotinsky's article  the




Iron Wall which is critical to understanding the Arab and the Israel position. He says this article, written sixty years ago, prophetic for understanding our times today.

He does not believe that Israel is truly not existentially threatened  by Iran in this moment. He believes that Israel will make a preemptive strike against Iran.
Will Tu
Will Turkey be the new Iran and Iran the new Turkey

His point is that we need to remember that israel needs to put up with American Jewish opinion if they wantAmerican JHewish support on the important issues to secuity.

AIPAC Symposium- Policy Analyst Aaron David Miller

aaron david miller

vp for new initiatives , Distinguished Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

the way the world is and the way the world you want it to be.

what is the balance

 1. Middle East is a region of risk, liability and vulnerability

2.  We cannot change the region and we cannot extricate ourselves from it.

3. hard to succeed and hard to leave it.

4. How do you measure success?

5. We have less street credibility than ever before.

6.  the key to life is success! it breeds friends and power. People who succeed generate followers. us has not succeeded

point 2.

1. we are learning about the limitations of american military power

2. we have not been attacked on the homeland since 9/11

We are safer but not safe

We are weaning ourselves away from a dependence on arab hydrocarbons

Canada and Mexico is good.

a. energy security is still an issue

b. other nations still need arab oil

3. This region has more complexity and moving parts

a. Iran search for nuclear weapons, palestine issue and israel are based upon domestic issues

b. long term issues . there are 

c. it is hard to deal comprehensively with these issues.

4.  partisanship of american politics is not relevant. it is about being smart or dumb. Polarization between states and ideologies is bad.

1. Israeli -Palestinian Peace

a. kerry peace process view point. a conflict ending agreement to settle the basic issues is unimaginable. Then what is possible?

Are leaders prisoners of political constituences

boarders and 

jerusalem and refugees

recognition of Jewish state

You care only what you own. Nobody every owned a rental car 'Larry Summers

Arab Spring-depressing but inevitable.

3 limits for democratic life do not exist

leaders cannot rise above their sectarian basis.

institutions that are inclusive

 institutional mechanism to debate volitile issues without destroying the system.

Iran- who can stop Iran? Iran. the costs might prove prohibitive.  but no evidence to suggest it.  it is about the capacity to produce the weapon. 

Our best hope is to keep Iran from becoming a breakout nation as a nuclear weapon state. Iran is driven by profound insecurity and grandiosity. dangerous

idealism without illusion. never give up. eyes wide open.

the Palestinian problem is called the Noah's ark syndrome

they have two of everything. how do you make peace?

security and identity issu

AIPAC Seminar: Panel Discussion Crafting Middle East Policy

Panel Discussion: Dr. Yamara Cofman Wittes Former deputy assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affarirs-Obama Administration
John Hannah- Former national security advisor, VP Richard Cheney

moderator-Jeff Jeff Colman- AIPAC

Exploring the current trends
ethnic nationalism
sectarianism
Islamism
Muslem Brotherhood approach
Al Qeada approach
What is different that is going on now?
absence of strong states.
There is a vacum and regional actors are doing what they do which is take advantage of the vacum.
Turkey is running up agains the limits of their power surge.
The actors in the Gulf States are responsible for stoking that fire in Lebanon and Iraq.
And what they do is lend credence to the arguments of Al Qeda and the most extreme elements.
 Both panelists agree that the war in Syria is a game changer for the region.
They both agree that the tension especially the religious tensions between the Sunni and Shia is unprecedented.
American Policy options.
Goals and Options?
John Hannah
1. Administration would like to see a negotiated ouster of Assad-unlikely
2. strengthen the  hand of the rebels.
3. Is there a viable American partner in Syria?
Wittes
she agrees that the momentum is to create the process to negotiate
the other process is containment- not getting Assad out but just protecting refugees and defend against use of chemical weapons.
yes there are options but no low cost options.
How important is getting the desired outcome in Syria to American interests?
How much of an American investment in this issue given that America is exhausted with international intervention. Polls demonstrate that Americans are more isolationist since 1992.
There is no pressure from the population to do anything about this matter.

Colman to Hannah: Is America just not as big a player in the Middle East?
Response- Not to dictate but to shape them.  But the US needs to be engaged. The world is better off with US involvement and leadership.

The president does well in steering the course. The one player everyone looks to is still the US. The players still look to the US even if the regional players say they  hate the US 

.. 

Iran?

Panel Response

Is it American policy to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon?

What would be the perception about US if Iran gets the weapon?

Hannah- It comes down to the President.

He will have to use military force to downgrade and buy time to figure out what to do in the long run.

The president has given himself little wiggle room.,

The President asks, "Do I want on my political legacy, on my watch, to have the Iranians get the bomb?" The problem is how effective will the intelligence be to know before it happens. It is a new world if they get a nuclear weapon. There is no communication between diplomats between Iran and US. No one to talk to resolve problems . Incredibly dangerous.

A nuclear standoff between Iran and Israel and Saudi Arabia will have huge economic implications -oil.

Wittes response:

1.  there is a permissive response in the American public opinion to allow for a US strike against Iran.

2.  a best case scenario would only retard Iranian process not destroy it.

3.  international coalition that has worked together on sanctions against Iran might help create a change in Iran. It is important to maintain that coalition.

4. Iranian elections: Meaning? Iran@saban blog.Iranian politicians are arguing over the sanctions and what they are doing to their economy. the new elections show that the regime is trying to do something about Iran's isolation and building ties to the  world. 

It does mean that the sanctions are having an impact politically but may not match the timetable of development of Nuclear weaponry. 

Hannah response.

Everyone was surprise. He agrees with Wittes comments.

Sanctions have been effective in generating a huge amount of debate in the society.

Keep the pedal to the medal with Iran. Pressure.

the current president was a concession to the disgust of the Iranian people to their government.

My view on the Trayvon Martin Case: Taking the Moral Highground

http://www.islandpacket.com/2013/08/05/2613725/trayvon-martin-case-should-inspire.html

Here is my most recent newspaper column on the Trayvon Martin verdict. As you can well imagine I have received a few critical comments. One described my views as "drivel." Well you cannot make everyone happy. Well, that is not what this column is about. You may not like what I wrote or disagree with it. That is fine and I still love you all. Go ahead and disagree with me. But let's do it in a civilized way.
Take care and thanks for taking the time to read the column.
Brad

Religion plays a behind the scenes role at Disney World

http://www.islandpacket.com/2013/07/19/2585642/religious-politics-fall-to-wayside.html

In this newspaper column I wrote I discuss my recent trip to Disney World where I talk about how Disney World deals with religion both in the themes of the park and catering to the  religiously observant who visit the theme park every day.
Thanks for taking the time read this column. Your comments are always appreciate.
Brad

A response to the Supreme Court's decision on DOMA and California Proposition 8

http://www.islandpacket.com/2013/07/05/2568238/what-does-supreme-court-decision.html

I wrote this piece after the Supreme Court came out with its decision on DOMA and California's Proposition 8. Thanks for taking the time to read it and as always I appreciate reading your comments.
Shalom,
Brad

The genre of the Black Spiritual: the music that preserves the memory of pain but also continues to give hope today.

http://www.islandpacket.com/2013/07/02/2564711/wondrous-voices-of-charleston.html

One of the privilege of writing a column on religion is not only writing on what one knows about but also learning from new experiences. Religion in American life is full of rich history. And living in the south is one place where history is alive and well in America. I am on the road again and I am blessed to bring to my readers my recent experience listening to an amazing choral group. Take a read and tell me what you think.
Shalom,
Brad